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J. Scott Armstrong

Scott Armstrong

Contact J. Scott Armstrong

armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu

J. Scott Armstrong, professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, and International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the creator of forecastingprinciples.

J. Scott Armstrong, professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, and International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the creator of forecastingprinciples.com and editor of Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer 2001), an evidence-based summary of knowledge on forecasting. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six “Honorary Fellows” by the International Institute of Forecasters. He has been doing research on forecasting for nearly half a century.

Recent Articles and Publications

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July 14, 2017
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong
An essay on forecasting by three leading scientists in their fields in response to their response to MIT President Rafael Reif.
July 10, 2017
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong, William Briggs, Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
A recent letter by prominent scientists to the MIT President Rafael Reif.
July 6, 2017
By H. Sterling Burnett, J. Scott Armstrong
Professor J. Scott Armstrong says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change violates each of the basic criteria of the scientific method.
April 24, 2017
By J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green
The March for Science could learn from this simple check list what is the “Scientific method” is.
October 28, 2013
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong
The authors post at the Heartlander the flaws evident in the climate models used by the IPCC. Could it be that there is no such thing as global warming, or that the modles are incorrectly predicting the severity of the change?
October 12, 2013
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong
In order to meet policy makers’ need for climate forecasts, this paper extends the application of evidence-based forecasting of global mean temperatures. The extensions utilize more years of global mean temperature data and 34 years of better data.
January 19, 2013
By J. Scott Armstrong
In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong’s attention was drawn to former VP Gore’s concerns about global warming.
November 4, 2009
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method.

2016 By the Numbers

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of state elected officials read one or more Heartland newspapers "sometimes" or "always."
45% of elected officials say Heartland led to a change in policy
45%
of state elected officials say a Heartland publication influenced their opinions or led to a change in public policy.
“The Heartland Institute [is] the world’s most prominent thinktank supporting skepticism about man-made climate change.”
The Economist
May 26, 2012
1.3 Million
the number of times Heartland's six podcasts were downloaded in 2016
216 issues
of weekly e-newsletters sent to subscribers across the country
120 events
that Heartland hosted, attended, or spoke at, reaching 13,474 guests
100,000 fans
on Facebook posting and reposting over 20 million times a week