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J. Scott Armstrong

Scott Armstrong

Contact J. Scott Armstrong

armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu

J. Scott Armstrong, professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, and International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the creator of forecastingprinciples.

J. Scott Armstrong, professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, and International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the creator of forecastingprinciples.com and editor of Principles of Forecasting (Kluwer 2001), an evidence-based summary of knowledge on forecasting. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six “Honorary Fellows” by the International Institute of Forecasters. He has been doing research on forecasting for nearly half a century.

Recent Articles and Publications

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July 6, 2017
Armstrong: United Nations’ IPCC Climate Forecasts Violate Scientific Method
By H. Sterling Burnett, J. Scott Armstrong
Professor J. Scott Armstrong says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change violates each of the basic criteria of the scientific method.
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April 24, 2017
What Does the March for Science Mean by ‘Science’?
By J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green
The March for Science could learn from this simple check list what is the “Scientific method” is.
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ipcc_4
October 28, 2013
The Science Fiction of IPCC Climate Models
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong
The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now?
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ipcc_4_3
October 28, 2013
The Science Fiction of IPCC Climate Models
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong
The authors post at the Heartlander the flaws evident in the climate models used by the IPCC. Could it be that there is no such thing as global warming, or that the modles are incorrectly predicting the severity of the change?
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polar ice caps
October 12, 2013
Evidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change Policies
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong
In order to meet policy makers’ need for climate forecasts, this paper extends the application of evidence-based forecasting of global mean temperatures. The extensions utilize more years of global mean temperature data and 34 years of better data.
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polar ice caps
January 19, 2013
No Cause for Alarm at Five-Year Mid-Point of the Armstrong-Gore Climate “Bet”
By J. Scott Armstrong
In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong’s attention was drawn to former VP Gore’s concerns about global warming.
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polar ice caps
November 4, 2009
Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method.
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May 26, 2012
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