Skip Navigation

Kesten Green

Kesten C. Green is a senior research fellow at the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute at the University of South Australia Business School and a policy advisor to The Heartland Institute.

Dr. Green is co-director of, a site promoting evidenced-based forecasting, and is a pioneer of methods to predict the decisions people will make in conflict situations such as occur in wars and in business.

Green became interested in climate forecasting when he realized the dire predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others might result in policies that would cause great harm to people. He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods.

Read Green's curriculum vitae, including recent scientific articles, at this link (PDF). Read his research at Google Scholar, and visit his personal website.

Recent Articles and Publications

view all by this author
June 7, 2019
By J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green
This is the PowerPoint presentation at the Invited Lecture for the Class of 1959 Reunion at Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA on June 7, 2019
July 14, 2017
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong
An essay on forecasting by three leading scientists in their fields, written in response to MIT President Rafael Reif.
July 10, 2017
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong, William Briggs, David Legates, Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
A recent letter by prominent scientists to the MIT President Rafael Reif.
April 24, 2017
By J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green
The March for Science could learn from this simple check list what is the “Scientific method” is.
December 13, 2015
By Kesten Green
Given the vast sums that have been spent on the IPCC process and how seriously the outputs are being taken by the Paris delegates, is it possible that alarm over dangerous manmade global warming is an exception to Occam’s razor in forecasting?
October 28, 2013
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong
The authors post at the Heartlander the flaws evident in the climate models used by the IPCC. Could it be that there is no such thing as global warming, or that the modles are incorrectly predicting the severity of the change?
October 12, 2013
By Kesten Green, Willie Soon, J. Scott Armstrong
In order to meet policy makers’ need for climate forecasts, this paper extends the application of evidence-based forecasting of global mean temperatures. The extensions utilize more years of global mean temperature data and 34 years of better data.
November 4, 2009
By Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and, if so, whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantially more accurate than those from the relevant benchmark method.

2018 By the Numbers

See what sets Heartland apart:
82% of state elected officials read Heartland publications
of state elected officials read one or more Heartland newspapers "sometimes" or "always."
45% of elected officials say Heartland led to a change in policy
of state elected officials say a Heartland publication influenced their opinions or led to a change in public policy.
3.2 Million
the number of times Heartland's six podcasts were downloaded in 2018
184 issues
of weekly e-newsletters sent to subscribers across the country
158 events
that Heartland hosted, attended, or spoke at, reaching over 34,000 guests in 2018.
100,000 fans
on Facebook posting and reposting over 1 million times a week