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Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States

May 29, 2020
By Sen Pei, et. al.

This paper describes mathematical models used in determining infection rate scenarios regarding public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The Columbia University study by epidemiologist Sen Pei uses county-level observations and mathematical models of infection to simulate a counterfactual situation in which government public-health responses began one week earlier than they did.

Had government agencies and lawmakers been able to obtain more data and react more quickly and with more precision, more than 60 percent of the reported infections might not have occurred, the study found.

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Health Care Regulation