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INSIGHTS INTO FUTURE MOBILITY

November 18, 2019
By ROBERT C. ARMSTRONG, et al.

The number of light duty vehicles on the roads, and vehicle miles traveled, will increase dramatically over the coming decade. Price and cost considerations mean electric vehicles will only make up a small part of that growth.

From the study:

As populations increase and incomes rise, global demand for personal mobility is expected to grow, ... [t]his is especially true in emerging economies that currently have relatively low levels of vehicle ownership. More than half a billion passenger vehicles could be added to the global fleet by mid-century. In the U.S. alone, LDV travel is expected to increase by roughly 50 percent in the same timeframe to reach nearly 5 trillion miles per year.

Currently battery powered electric vehicles cost approximately 10,000 more per vehicle to manufacture than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles, presenting a major barrier to electric vehicle adoption. This manufacturing cost differential between electric and conventional vehicles is expected to persist well beyond 2030. Other factors limiting the widespread adoption of electric vehicles include the relative cost of electricity, vehicle range, local gasoline prices, vehicle maintenance costs, battery life, and ambient temperature, which can handicap electric-vehicle efficiency.