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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028

April 9, 2018
By Congressional Budget Office

This report, published by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, a federal agency tasked with providing budget and economic information to Congress, includes projections for key economic indicators.

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This report, published by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, a federal agency tasked with providing budget and economic information to Congress, includes economic projections for key economic indicators, including spending and gross domestic product (GDP), over the next 10 years.

“Between 2018 and 2028, actual and potential real output alike are projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent,” CBO wrote. “In CBO’s forecast, the growth of potential GDP is the key determinant of the growth of actual GDP through 2028, because actual output is very near its potential level now and is projected to be near its potential level at the end of the period.”

Federal deficit spending levels and debt levels are expected to continue increasing over the next 10 years, CBO writes.

“In CBO’s projections, budget deficits continue increasing after 2018, rising from 4.2 percent of GDP this year to 5.1 percent in 2022,” CBO wrote. “That percentage has been exceeded in only five years since 1946; four of those years followed the deep 2007–2009 recession. Deficits remain at 5.1 percent between 2022 and 2025 before dipping at the end of the period, primarily because some tax provisions are scheduled to expire under current law, boosting revenues. Over the 2021–2028 period, projected deficits average 4.9 percent of GDP; the only time since World War II when the average deficit has been so large over so many years was after the 2007–2009 recession.”